A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
